Troy Coaching Search 24 – The Matrix Returns

The next step in our coaching search is to set up the Coaching Probability Matrix, our objective, foolproof and highly scientific method of determining the absolute best candidate for the Troy head football coach job.

Two years ago, I found that the matrix gave me a scale of success to rank coaches. The system was calibrated around Neal Brown’s identity, his success at Troy, and whether it was a step up or down.

I noticed in retrospect a trend among the 2021 candidates. Here are the top 15 scorers from the matrix and their job either this past season or most recently.

Eight of the top ten are head coaches. Four of the top ten are FBS head coaches, and those who aren’t head coaches are all Power Five assistants or coordinators—except Jeremy Pruitt, who is his own special case.

There were other future head coaches on the list too. Former ULM coach Terry Bowden scored a 12.93, new Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby scored a 12 and Western Michigan’s Lance Taylor scored a 7.

Jon Sumrall only scored a 9 out of a possible 25, but honestly at the time we knew he was the candidate. I fully admit I worked the results around knowing he was the top choice.

Given how it turned out, I don’t apologize. I will however recalibrate this system and give you the unfiltered results for this year’s selection.

I’ve tightened the factors for success and included more Troy-specific data, so I think this method will give us the best overall coaching candidate, based mostly on success.

Here’s my breakdown:

The Matrix

Played/coached at Troy?

The perfect candidate from a perfect world is a Troy grad who coached at Troy and only ever lived in Troy his or her entire life. The only two people on the entire list who got points from the “both” column are Jordan Lesley and Mike Turk, whose name will always be on the long list for the Troy vacancy.

Even if the candidate gets a “1,” that’s easily overcome in later sections.

Winning Percentage x 8

I wanted this section to take up the majority of our consideration. How good was the most recent team they led?

I don’t care if you’re a quarterbacks coach, if the team goes 12-0 or 0-12 you had a hand in it. I just didn’t go back any farther because Troy assistants would get an unfair boost.

A good coach would overcome that, like Alex Atkins from the undefeated Florida State Seminoles. Still, I can establish greatness other ways.

Championship experience

It’s simple. Have you coached your team to a championship? Jimbo Fisher, Ed Orgeron, Dell McGee, Tommie Robinson and Corey Dennis get points for recent CFP or BCS titles, and Casey Woods (SMU’s offensive coordinator) was part of both Auburn championship teams.

The real standout is Reggie Barlow leading the DC Defenders to the XFL title game… and claiming black college football championships for two different teams: Alabama State and Virginia State. I don’t know if the defending XFL Coach of the Year would come back to the college ranks, but he’s a winner both as a coach and in this process.

FBS Coaching experience

I gave Reggie the benefit here. A 9-1 season in the XFL counts as being an FBS head coach.

I did not however give benefits to interims here, like Greg Gasparato or Brandon Hall. As difficult as it is for Greg to prepare for the bowl game in less than two weeks, I wanted a full season of work.

Conference titles (as coach)

The easiest question has the most complicated math. If your team won a conference title as a coach, then you deserve credit.

If your team has won multiple titles as a coach, you deserve more credit, but I didn’t want Corey Dennis, a QB coach for a successful dynasty, outweighing Jimbo Fisher and Bill Clark in this category.

I did however value FBS and Pro leagues above FCS, NAIA and high school for obvious reasons. I gave Reggie Barlow credit for both his FCS conference title at Virginia State and his XFL North Division title. For everyone else, I went with the one that gave them the most points.

Will he win over players?

This is the least objective of the questions, but it’s basically a boost for coaches that either would be a splash hire or are known for their passion.

Would you win over players? Yes? Two points. Maybe? Get a point.

The only way this hurts you is if you’re a really out-of-left-field pick. Certain resumes would build enough hype, and certain people with ties to Troy would get players excited.

The value here is keeping the core of this year’s team and the culture Jon built.

So how did everyone do?

Results

The best possible score is a 25, but if we had someone that good we’d already know they were the candidate.

Let’s start with Neal and Jon. I built the system around Neal and calibrated the system this year to go off Jon’s characteristics, so what are their scores?

So that’s the range we should really consider: 15-20. There are great candidates below that mark (remember, Jon was a 9 last time), but this is entirely based on resume with a splash of Troy ties.

Here’s the results:

Score	Candidate
19.38	Dell McGee
19.20	Reggie Barlow
19.00	Alex Atkins
18.77	Greg Gasparato
18.77	Joe Craddock
18.77	Casey Woods
18.77	Shiel Wood
18.77	Bam Hardmon
17.77	Tayler Polk
17.67	Al Pogue
17.67	Brandon Hall
17.50	Corey Dennis
16.80	Jimbo Fisher
16.54	Bill Clark
16.33	Jordan Lesley
16.33	Willie Simmons
15.67	Zach Yenser
15.29	Matt Entz
14.33	Matt Moore
14.00	Ed Orgeron
13.33	Billy Napier
12.67	Tommie Robinson
12.15	Clay Hendrix
12.15	Tee Martin
11.40	Mike Turk
10.08	Derrick Ansley
9.67	Lance Taylor
8.71	Jerrel Jernigan
8.00	Joe Sloan
8.00	Zac Etheridge
8.00	Cadillac Williams
6.64	Bear Woods

Greg, Joe, Shiel, Bam, Taylor, Al and Brandon are all high scorers because they’re coaches on good teams and they have strong ties to Troy. Some candidates just don’t have the right experience.

Tommie Robinson, Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ansley are hurt by coaching on teams with bad records (again, Jon had a 9 last time).

Finally, this isn’t representative of my personal opinion, this is a mathematical ranking based on factors I can actually make objective.

So What, Now What?^TM

So this isn’t the end of the searching process. I’ve gathered this data, and I’m getting lists from several other Troy representatives.

I’ll put all that information together to create an aggregate top ten list, and I’ll share all the data together with you later this week.

In the meantime, take this survey to tell me who you think should be the next Troy coach. I will use your answers.

We’ll figure out this out together.

Feature photo uses image by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.